The latest run-off forecast figures released by the Chelan County PUD continue to show a snowpack lagging a bit behind historical averages.
The latest measurements released last week show, despite the recent storms, the Lake Chelan Runoff forecast is remaining at about 82 percent of normal.
Power Resource Engineer Scott Buehn has the unenviable job of trying to forecast runoff for the upcoming spring and summer months, so the PUD can calculate how much water can be run through the Chelan Dam generation plant during this winter and still keep lake levels within the standards dictated by the Lake Chelan Hydro Operating License.
While the numbers are helpful, it’s an inexact science at best:
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So far, snowpack levels seem to be on track. However weather forecasting is a dicey business and there’s no guarantee that the spring months will pack as much snow as in years past.
According to the latest measurements, the elevation level of Lake Chelan is about seven tenths of a foot higher than average, but almost 4 feet lower than a year ago at this time.